Drill. Or don’t. That’s the first test waiting for Andy Burnham inside Number 10.
The Makerfield MP is practically confirmed as our next prime minister, having rallied nearly 350 colleagues. Just days ago, right before the leadership clock ran out, he got a letter. From unions and the oil industry alike. One request: back North Sea extraction.
It’s a messy spot.
Labour’s 2024 manifesto was clear enough. No new licenses. The argument was simple: drilling won’t drop your electricity bill, it won’t guarantee security, and it only pumps more CO2 into a sky that is already too hot.
But Rosebank and Jackdaw? Those files are older than Labour’s return to power. The gears were already turning. Now the new administration has to decide whether to stop the machine.
Everyone has an opinion.
Industry lobbies hard. But so does the Left wing of his own party. There is a camp within Labour pushing for a tighter no-drill policy, citing the sweltering Westminster summers as proof the climate crisis is here now. They want renewables. Fast. They point to Burnham’s time as Manchester Mayor. He fixed public transport there. He understands green infrastructure.
Then there’s the other view.
Some colleagues see his northern background differently. De-industrialization left scars. Maybe he will be sympathetic to the workers still employed by the old energy giants? One MP even mentioned Donald Trump. The American president never stops chanting about drilling. He is looking south.
It’s a genuine tension. Burnham embodies the split. He saw industries fade in the North West. He knows what job loss looks like. But he also fought for the environment in Manchester. Which part of him leads in London?
Scottish Labour seems to expect he will soften the line.
The political ground has shifted beneath everyone’s feet. Remember when Ed Miliband called the Rosebank license “climate vandalism”? Now, whispers suggest he might let Jackdaw go through. Why? Energy security is the new god. The cost of living hurts. Ukraine is still burning. The Strait of Hormuz is unpredictable.
Scotland is moving too.
In 2021 and 2023, the SNP said no. Nicola Sturgeon blocked the Cambo field. It felt like a firm wall. Then came 2026. The wall crumbled a bit.
First Minister John Swinney has adopted a new tone. Energy security matters. Stephen Flynn, the new Scottish Economy Secretary, won his seat by promising to champion oil workers. And Jack Middleton, a former Swinney aide now in Parliament, openly backed both Rosebank and Jackdaw.
We should be decreasing our reliance on the Middle East and friends of Putin.
That is the pitch. Security over ideology. The Scottish government won’t officially intervene, but they sure don’t stop their own MSPs from arguing the pro-drilling case.
The Conservatives? They aren’t sitting out. Kemi Badenoch wants Britain drilling. It worked in Aberdeen South recently. Voters liked it.
So where does this leave Burnham?
The government says decisions will come “in due course.” That’s bureaucrat-speak for we haven’t figured it out yet.
He walks in the door and faces defense budgets. Welfare cuts. Immigration chaos. The usual list. But the oil question demands an early signal. He cannot delay forever.
No matter what he signs, he leaves a body behind. If he drills, the activists burn the car outside Downing Street. If he halts, the workers in Aberdeen lose faith, and bills might not drop anyway.
It is a lose-lose calculation wrapped in a geopolitical tightrope. He has to choose who he lets down.
