A new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) reveals a stark reality: the world is on track to exceed the critical warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels within the next ten years. This milestone, established in the Paris Agreement, is considered a vital limit for avoiding the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
The Urgent Need for Emissions Reductions
To keep global warming below 1.5°C (2.7°F), the report states that annual greenhouse gas emissions must be slashed by 55% compared to 2019 levels by 2035. However, based on current national pledges and actions, there is little chance of achieving this goal. The report underscores that the magnitude of the required cuts, combined with the limited time available and a challenging political landscape, makes it highly likely that the 1.5°C threshold will be exceeded within the next decade.
Understanding the Significance of 1.5°C
The Paris Agreement, signed a decade ago, recognized the importance of limiting warming to “well below” 2°C (3.6°F), with a preference for staying below 1.5°C. This target isn’t arbitrary; it’s rooted in scientific evidence demonstrating the escalating risks associated with incremental warming. Even modest increases can lead to more frequent and intense climate-related events like wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. While humanity can manage the consequences of 1.5°C of warming, exceeding that point poses significantly greater dangers, particularly for economically developing nations and island communities.
Dangers of Exceeding 1.5°C
The differences between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming are significant. A 2°C increase could more than double the portion of the global population exposed to extreme heat. The Arctic is projected to experience sea ice-free summers every decade at 2°C, compared to roughly once every 100 years at 1.5°C. Coral reefs would suffer considerably more damage, and significantly more permafrost would thaw—releasing potent greenhouse gases—under a 2°C scenario.
Current Pledges Fall Short
To stay below the 2°C threshold, nations need to cut emissions by 35% from 2019 levels by 2035. Unfortunately, current pledges put the world on track for between 2.3°C and 2.5°C of warming, significantly exceeding that target. If emissions continue unchecked, a warming of 2.8°C (5°F) by the end of the century is possible.
A Slightly Improved, But Still Concerning, Outlook
While the 2025 Emissions Gap report offers a marginally improved outlook compared to last year—predicting a potential 0.3°C (0.5°F) decrease in warming—this improvement is partly due to better reporting methodologies (accounting for 0.1°C of the change) and partially attributable to the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement. Recent pledges from individual countries, such as China, “have barely moved the needle,” according to the report, emphasizing that “Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal.”
Upcoming Climate Summit and New Proposals
The UNEP report is being released ahead of the U.N.’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hopes to create a “serious” and effectively implemented outcome. Brazil will propose establishing a new global environment council empowered to monitor individual countries’ progress towards their climate commitments. As Lula stated, “Otherwise nothing will happen.”
The findings of this report reinforce the urgent need for accelerated action to mitigate climate change and avert the most severe consequences of global warming. The coming decade will be critical in determining whether the world can still meet its climate goals.
